XRP bulls in ‘denial’ as price trend mirrors previous 75-90% crashes

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XRP ( $1.44 ) ( XRP ( $1.44 ) ) has lost more than 40% since hitting a multi-year high near $3.40 in January, and onchain data suggests the downtrend could deepen in the weeks ahead.

“Denial” preceding past 75-90% XRP ( $1.44 ) crashes is back

XRP ( $1.44 ) ’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) $1.44 ) &c=native&ema=0&mAvg=0&mMedian=0&s=1395053610&u=1743292800&zoom=" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/indicators.NetUnrealizedProfitLoss?a= XRP ( $1.44 ) &c=native&ema=0&mAvg=0&mMedian=0&s=1395053610&u=1743292800&zoom=">data from Glassnode suggests the token may be heading for another extended downturn.

The metric, which gauges the aggregate unrealized gains or losses of XRP ( $1.44 ) holders, has historically served as a reliable barometer of potential trend reversals. In past market cycles, NUPL has peaked in the so-called “euphoria” zone just before major price tops.

In 2018, XRP ( $1.44 ) soared above $3.00 as NUPL signaled extreme optimism, only to collapse 90% to below $0.30 as sentiment deteriorated through “denial” and into “capitulation.”

*XRP ( $1.44 ) NUPL historical performance chart. Source: Glassnode*

A similar pattern played out in 2021 when XRP ( $1.44 ) hit $1.96 before sliding 75% to $0.50 amid a sharp shift from euphoria to fear.

As of March 2025, XRP ( $1.44 ) ’s NUPL has once again entered the “denial” zone, with the price trading around $2.50 following a strong rally. If the pattern holds, XRP ( $1.44 ) could face further downsides akin to the bear markets in 2018 and 2021.

*XRP ( $1.44 ) /USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

XRP ( $1.44 ) now faces similar risks, trading sideways between $1.80 and $3.40, following a blistering 585% rally in just two months.

The rally accelerated after pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump won the US presidential election, while speculation grew around Ripple’s potential victory in its SEC lawsuit and the possible approval of a spot XRP ( $1.44 ) ETF in 2025.

As a result of these supportive fundamentals, some traders said XRP ( $1.44 ) ’s ongoing consolidation may eventually lead to a breakout. That includes market analyst Stellar Babe, who anticipates XRP ( $1.44 ) ’s price to gain 450%.

Technical fractal suggests XRP ( $1.44 ) is topping out

XRP ( $1.44 ) ’s weekly chart suggests a bearish fractal from 2021 may be unfolding again.

In both 2021 and 2025, the XRP ( $1.44 ) price formed a local top while the RSI printed a lower high, signaling bearish divergence and weakening upside momentum.

Back in 2021, that divergence preceded an 85.50% sell-off that broke below the 50-week (the red wave) and 200-week (the blue wave) exponential moving averages (EMA) supports.

In 2025, XRP ( $1.44 ) has again shown a similar RSI divergence, followed by a 40%-plus decline from its recent highs. It now risks an extended decline toward the 50-week EMA at around $1.58, down about 21.6% from the current price levels by June.

If the correction deepens and breaks below the 50-week EMA support, history suggests XRP ( $1.44 ) could slide further toward the 200-week EMA around $0.87, or about 60% from the current price levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.