Bitcoin trader say BTC headed toward $125K by New Year’s Even based on ‘Bayesian probability’

Bitcoin ( $61,181.00 ) (BTC) price entered a strong price discovery phase for the first time since December 2020, after its weekly chart closed above $80,000. BTC’s bullish structure has transpired from a short-term to a long-term outlook, and multiple analysts believe that an assortment of six-figure price targets will be attained sooner than later.

Bitcoin ( $61,181.00 ) could reach $125,000 by New Year’s Eve

Peter Brandt, a popular market analyst, highlighted that Bitcoin ( $61,181.00 ) tends to repeat its bullish price action trends when it decides to “mark up.” The trader addressed BTC’s current move above previous ATH levels and suggested a $125,000 price target based on Bayesian probability.

Bayesian probability, or Bayes’ theorem, determines the conditional probability of a future event based on past data sets. In layman’s terms, it helps traders handle uncertain price ranges by setting targets based on how the asset behaved in similar past situations.

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Brandt explained that BTC’s run in Q1 2024 can be emulated in Q4 2024 based on the above theorem, potentially leading to a $125,000 high before New Year’s Eve 2024.

Meanwhile, Titan of Crypto, a Bitcoin ( $61,181.00 ) proponent and trader, indicated that BTC‘s bullish pennant target is $158,000. The trader mentioned BTC’s weekly chart golden cross completion as a key factor for the bullish continuation, keeping $100,000 as the first target for the second bull phase in 2024.

Related: Bitcoin ( $61,181.00 ) price hits $80K for the first time — New ‘inflation-adjusted’ all-time high

Open Bitcoin ( $61,181.00 ) CME gap between $77,800 to $80,600

With Bitcoin ( $61,181.00 ) price rising 5+% over the weekend, a CME gap opened up between $77,800 and $80,600 on the daily chart on Nov. 11. This is the first CME gap since August 2024 on the 1-day time period, and CME gaps on the daily chart have a strong likelihood of getting filled.

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Thus, if conditions change, Bitcoin ( $61,181.00 ) could drop to $77,800 or less over the next few days. Scient, an anonymous market analyst, also indicated that BTC could be close to a local top. Scient added,

“Anticipating the price to halt around $84-85k followed by a correction/consolidation for 7-10 days before we resume up again.”

However, it is important to note BTC’s previous market behavior regarding the CME gap. Under similar conditions, a small CME gap opened in 2023 as well, after BTC breached a multi month resistance level before exhibiting a yearly high in Q4.

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As observed in the chart, the CME gap was formed under a higher high outlook and wasn’t filled until January 2025, when BTC prices rallied another 23% from the CME gap.

If Bitcoin ( $61,181.00 ) follows the above, the crypto asset might continue to ascend higher, reaching a new all-time high above $100,000.

Related: $80K BTC price chases gold — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin ( $61,181.00 ) this week

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.