Bitcoin price prediction markets bet BTC won’t go higher than $138K in 2025

BItcoin (BTC) retains a $138,000 price target for 2025 as the market recovers from US trade tariffs, new analysis concludes.

Data covering bets on prediction service Polymarket suggests that BTC/USD could still gain around 60% from current levels this year.

“Conservative” Polymarket users cap BTC price upside at 60%

Bitcoin ( $75,942.00 ) bull market projections have taken a beating this quarter thanks to multiple setbacks impacting crypto and the wider risk-asset spectrum.

Now, an assessment of all potential BTC price outcomes on Polymarket concludes that the bull market cycle may be capped at around 60% before 2026.

The results were uploaded to X by user Ashwin on March 27 and show that price bets extend all the way down to $59,000.

“The great thing about this analysis is that it not only provides a market sentiment score, like the Fear and Greed Index, but also attaches to it the expected price target for both bearish and bullish scenarios,” he explained. 

“This offers a reference to compare one’s price prediction with the market’s.”

Ashwin deconstructed the methodology used to analyze odds across multiple Polymarket arenas, resulting in a potential BTC price range between $59,040 and $138,617.

“The $138k Bitcoin ( $75,942.00 ) price target may not seem bullish to most Bitcoin ( $75,942.00 ) ers, who are accustomed to hearing hyperbolic valuations. However, the market remains conservative as it recovers from the Trump tariff uncertainty,” he continued.

The modest expectations for BTC/USD mimic those elsewhere. On fellow prediction site Kalshi, one average BTC price target stands at $122,000 — just $11,500 beyond current all-time highs.

Bitcoin ( $75,942.00 ) support failure remains a risk

As Cointelegraph continues to report, market participants have drawn lines in the sand that price action should not violate in order to protect the broader bull market.

Related: Bitcoin ( $75,942.00 ) price just ditched a 3-month downtrend as ‘key shift’ begins

These include the area around old all-time highs at $73,800 and the 2021 peak at $69,000.

Earlier this month, a historically accurate forecasting tool, which its creator describes as showing where Bitcoin ( $75,942.00 ) “won’t be” in the future, gave a 95% chance of $69,000 holding.

In his latest update, popular trader Aksel Kibar stressed that the yearly average of $76,000 must stay in place.

“Extremely important for the price not to breach the year-long average,” he told X followers on March 26.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.